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News

ARTICLE

Date ArticleType
2/28/2022 Member News

March 2022 FX Outlook

Bannockburn Global Forex

Drivers for the month ahead
February 28, 2022
View Online
Bannockburn Global Forex
Economic Calendar
March 1: Reserve Bank of Australia
March 1: US President’s State of the Union Address
March 2: Bank of Canada
March 2: Eurozone flash CPI
March 2: OPEC+ Meeting
March 4: US Employment Data
March 9: South Korean Presidential Election
March 10: European Central Bank
March 10: US CPI
March 13: Colombian Parliamentary Election
March 15: UK Employment Data
March 16: Federal Reserve
March 16: Central Bank of Brazil
March 17: Bank of England
March 17: Central Bank of Turkey
March 18: Bank of Japan
March 18: Central Bank of Russia
March 23: UK CPI
March 24: Bank of Mexico
March 24: Central Bank of Norway                                                               
March 2022 FX Outlook
March is a pivotal month. The US and Canada will join ranks of countries raising interest rates. The Bank of England will not only hike rates again, but it will begin allowing its balance sheet to shrink by not reinvesting the proceeds of GBP28 bln of maturing bonds it holds. The ECB is expected to provide fresh forward guidance of its asset purchases. Given the agreed upon sequence, it will likely point to the first rate hike in late Q3 or early Q4. 
After a slow start of the year, growth in the major economies appear to be picking up and price pressures have not peaked. Still, the base effect suggests core rates may begin easing in March/April, but the new highs in energy, grains, and edible oils warn headline inflation may be stickier. In Europe and North America, the Omicron wave has crested, but in parts of Asia, including Hong Kong and China, it still is a social and economic challenge. At the same time, the supply chain disruptions are easing in some sectors and the delivery-times are improving in general. 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was well signaled by US intelligence, but the markets still reacted dramatically.  In the coming weeks, the extent of sanctions on Russia will be better understood. Thus far, officials have stopped short of taking action that would have severe domestic costs while asphyxiating the Russian economy, like banning the purchase of its oil and gas. Spurred in part by US sanctions, real and threatened, Putin has spent the last decade de-dollarizing. Between the central bank’s reserve and the sovereign wealth fund, Russia has a nearly $1 trillion cushion that will help it absorb the coming financial shocks. More broadly, the economic risks Russia’s invasion may be to lift prices and dampen growth. 
Click here for the full monthly outlook
Bannockburn's GDP-weighted currency index rose about 0.3% in February as the currencies tended to have appreciated against the dollar.  The Chinese yuan (21.8%) and euro (19.1%) have the most weighting after the US dollar (31%) in the index.  They rose by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. The strongest performer in the index was the Brazilian real (2.1% weighting) with a 3.0% gain, followed by the Australian dollar's (2.0% weighting) 2.25% increase. The weakest by far was the Russian ruble (2.2% weighting), which tumbled 6.75%.

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  • About Us
    • Letter From The Governor
    • Message From The President
    • Board of Directors
    • Our Team
    • Internships
    • What Companies Say >
      • Submit a Testimonial
    • Map of the Area
    • World Trade Centers Association
    • Contact Us
  • Services
    • Member Benefits >
      • Become A Member
      • Student Membership
    • Benefit Partners
    • Local Partners
    • Online Education
    • Import/Export Assistance
    • International Business Training
    • U.S. Office Setup
  • Business Directory
  • Events & News
    • Events >
      • Submit a Community Event
    • Picture Gallery
    • World Trade News You Can Use
    • Newsletters
    • Join Our Mailing List!
  • Resources
    • COVID-19
    • Are you Export Ready?
    • Trade Leads >
      • Submit a Trade Lead
  • Job Bank
  • Member Login